60 years of Cuban Missile Crisis: US, Russia still biggest nuclear powers with 90% of global warhead inventory

By: Lakshita Bhagat

Let us revisit the Cuban Missile Crisis on its sixtieth anniversary and trace the nuclear proliferation since then and the present geopolitics

It has been sixty years since the world came to the brink of witnessing a nuclear confrontation between the US and the Soviet Union. While the seeds of the crisis were sown with the failed invasion of the Bay of Pigs (1961), which brought Cuba closer to the Soviet Union, the trigger was the discovery of Soviet ballistic nuclear missile sites built on Cuban territory. The positioning of the weapons carried enormous implications for the US and the entire world as it heralded the breakout of a nuclear war. Once again, as the war returns to Eurasia and the spectre of nuclear force looms, let us revisit the Cuban Missile Crisis on its sixtieth anniversary and trace the nuclear proliferation since then and the present geopolitics.

What happened?p

As it became clear that the new Cuban leader who emerged from a revolution was leaning towards the Soviet Union, the US attempted to install a more acquiescent leadership. This led to the Bay of Pigs invasion that was thwarted by Cuban forces. Consequently, to seek security against future US aggressions, Cuba turned to the Soviets. Subsequently, nuclear weapons were supplied to Cuba under a secret agreement (until the missile were functional) by the Soviets. However, the move was soon noticed by the US U2 spy plane, and the US demanded immediate removal of the missiles. It was becoming clear that if the missiles were not removed and the Soviets resorted to military attack, the US would retaliate heavily by invading Cuba and using nuclear force against the Soviet Union. However, the US and USSR leadership negotiated a peaceful outcome and pulled the world out of an imminent nuclear threat. Realising the situation's fragility, both sides made concessions; the soviets removed the missile sites from Cuba, and the US vowed not to invade Cuba and made a non-public commitment to remove nuclear missiles from Turkey and Italy, which had been placed close to the Soviet borders. 

The race to amass nuclear weapons continues

As the crisis brought the world closer to nuclear destruction, efforts were made to avert any such possibility. For instance, the Soviet Union, the US, and the UK inked the Limited Test Ban Treaty in 1963, banning underwater, outer space and atmospheric nuclear testing. Subsequently, other treaties like the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) (1968) and SALT I and II (1972 and 1979)were also put in place to put a lid on nuclear weapons. Despite several such efforts, nuclear proliferation did not cease. As the chart demonstrates below, the arms race peaked during the 1980s. 

Several newly independent and developing countries joined the nuclear club, and others pursued atomic options in the second half of the twentieth century. The arch-rivals, India and Pakistan, became a nuclear power in 1974 and 1998, respectively. China, France, the UK, Israel, and North Korea possess nuclear capabilities. However, India, Pakistan, and Israel have not signed the NPT owing to their national and security concerns and placing the argument directly in realpolitik. India adheres to a nuclear no-first-use (NFU) policy. 

In the initial period of the Cold War, the US maintained a lead on warhead stockpiles. However, Russia (erstwhile Soviet Union) raced ahead, and now both countries have amassed more than 90% of the world’s warhead inventories (see chart below). Nuclear proliferation has remained steady since the 1980s, with less testing and more accumulation of stockpiles. Despite few new additions and differing capabilities of nuclear weapons, the existing nuclear arsenal can be destructive for entire humanity if ever used.

Russia-Ukraine war and fears of nuclear escalation 

Since 1945, the nuclear force has never been used. The 77 years tradition now appears to be threatened by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis. The war, which started eight months ago, has renewed the latent fears of nuclear force. Nuclear-armed Russia and non-nuclear Ukraine have been fighting the battle for eight months. While the concerns about using nuclear force were expressed early on, Russia ruled against it. However, recently, Russia has accused Ukraine of preparing to use a ‘dirty bomb’ and has signalled a similar escalation. Several countries have asked Russia to ditch the nuclear option, including India. The US has been stern in its stance and has said if Russia uses nuclear force, it would be a ‘serious mistake’. This is the first time, after the Cuban Missile Crisis, Russia and US have been engaged in an indirect yet direct confrontation. Some have said that the claims of Russia, which possesses 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons, against Ukraine are a ‘false flag’ and meant as a pretext for launching its own offensive. The world has seen the nuclear tragedy and the fears it created during 1962; it is pertinent that nuclear force must never be used. Instead, solutions should be found through dialogue and diplomacy.