Friday, 17 May, 2024
By: Yash Gupte
According to the UN study, China and India together will make up more than a third of the predicted 8.045 billion people on the planet by the mid-2023. Image Source: IANS
The demographic data released by the United Nation’s population body has estimates India’s population to reach 142.86 crore or 1.428 billion against 142.57 or 1.425 billion for China.
According to the United Nations Population Fund’s (UNPF) “State of World Population Report 2023,” India is set to surpass China as the World’s most populous country with almost 3 million more people by the middle of this year. As per the report, India is on the way to overtake China with almost 3 million more people by June 2023. The demographic data released by the United Nation’s population body has estimates India’s population to reach 142.86 crore or 1.428 billion against 142.57 or 1.425 billion for China. Even though the two Asian superpowers will make up more than one-third of the projected world population of 8.045 billion, the population growth in both India and China has been slowing, at a much rapid pace in China as compared to India. For the first time in six decades, China's population declined last year. This historic development is likely to signal the beginning of a protracted period of declining citizen numbers, which will have significant effects on China's economy and the rest of the globe.
According to the UN study, China and India together will make up more than a third of the predicted 8.045 billion people on the planet by the mid-2023. Government statistics show that India's population has grown by 1.2 percent annually on average since 2011 as opposed to 1.7 percent over the previous ten years. Using prior data from the UN, population experts predicted that India's population would surpass China's this month, but the most recent report from the international body did not include a date.
In India, where the most recent census was conducted in 2011, and where the next, scheduled for 2021, was postponed owing to the COVID-19 pandemic, UN population officials have stated that it is difficult to determine a date due to uncertainties regarding the data from China and India.
Despite the fact that the world's population reached 8 billion in November of last year, the new UNFPA report claims that it is expanding at its slowest rate since 1950 falling under 1 percent in 2020. The estimated global population is 8,045 million, of whom 65 percent are between the ages of 15 and 64, 24 percent are between the ages of 10 and 24, and 10 percent are older than 65, according to the report.
The United States of America stood a very distant third, with an estimated population of 340 million or 34 crore followed by Indonesia at 27.7 crore. The chart below shows the top 10 most populated countries by the middle of this year.
Source: UNPF State of World Population Report 2023
The chart shows that among the ten most populated countries of the world in 2023, half of them are Asian countries- India, China, Indonesia, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Indonesia and Pakistan are estimated to be the fourth and fifth most populated countries by mid-2023. The chart also shows the vast difference between the most populated and the tenth most populated country in the world. The difference between India and Mexico’s population is of approximately 130 crore.
A deeper look at the report reveals that the most developed regions of the world are the least populated while the less developed regions of the world have the highest population concentration. Out of the total 8.04 billion people in the world, 6.76 people are the inhabitants of the less developed regions across the world. On the other hand, only 1.27 billion people are living in the most developed regions. Talking about the population composition, the less developed regions have the highest concentration of working age population followed by the developed regions and the least developed countries. In case of the total fertility rate per women, the least developed countries have the highest fertility rate of 3.9 followed by the less developed regions (2.4). The developed regions have the lowest total fertility rate 1.5. The Asia-Pacific region is the most populated region in the world with a population of 4.17 billion while the Eastern Europe and Central Asian region has the lowest population of just 0.24 billion or 248 million.
The chart below takes a look at the demographic indicators of the 10 most populated countries of the world.
Source: UNFP State of World Population Report 2023
Among the ten most populated countries, Brazil has the highest population in the age group of 15-64 years. This indicates that the Latin American nation has the highest working age population among the ten most populated countries of the world. Brazil has the highest demographic dividend among all the nations. Demographic dividend, as defined by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), is "the economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population’s age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population (15 to 64) is larger than the non-working-age share of the population (14 and younger, and 65 and older). When the percentage of the population that is employed is large, there is a demographic dividend because more individuals have the capacity to be productive and contribute to the growth of the economy.
The current population is more than three times higher than the 2.5 billion global headcount in 1950. The annual growth rate of the world population was the fastest between 1962 and 1965, over the 100-year period between 1950 and 2050, reaching an average of 2.1 percent per year. Globally, life expectancy has increased and reached 72.8 years in 2019, which is almost a nine-year of increment since 1990. On the other hand, further reductions in mortality will increase life expectancy to an average of 77.2 years globally in 2050. The United Nations project another 15 years to become nine billion in number, a billion more than today. The global body looks at the year 2080 for reaching 10 billion.
Demographics is one of the most important tool to understand and study the composition of population in a particular country. In a country like India, which is very diverse in nature in terms of age groups, castes, gender, religions, cultures, languages, food habits, living geographical conditions etc, it is very important to take a look at the population composition as it is a very important factor which influences politics, economic and the society. The above chart clearly indicates that India has a very high demographic dividend as 66.3 percent male population falls under the age group of 15-59 years and 66.8 percent of the total female population in India falls under the same age group. This factor is very beneficial for India as the maximum population is working and this yields high economic output. The least percentage of population falls under the age group of 65+ which means that the senior citizens constitute least percentage of population. Out of the total population of males in India, only 4.9 percent are senior citizens and in case of the total female population, only 5.4 percent fall under the category of senior citizens.
Source: Sample Registration Survey Bulletin, Office of the Registrar General of India
Andrea Wojnar, the representative for United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) India and the country director for Bhutan said, “As the world reaches 8 billion people, we at UNFPA see India’s 1.4 billion people as 1.4 billion opportunities. As the country with the largest youth cohort, its 254 million youth (15-24 years) can be a source of innovation, new thinking and lasting solutions. The trajectory can leapfrog forward if women and girls, in particular, are equipped with equal educational and skill-building opportunities, access to technology and digital innovations, and most importantly with information and power to fully exercise their reproductive rights and choices.” Andrea Wojnar’s statement highlights the importance of demographic dividend.
Talking about life expectancy, China has the highest life expectancy of 79 years among the ten most populated countries followed by USA and Brazil. On the other hand, Nigeria and Pakistan have the lowest life expectancy of 54 years and 65 years respectively. Coming over to the fertility rates among different countries, China has the lowest fertility rate of 1.2 while Nigeria has the highest fertility rate of 5.1. According to the study, governments are increasingly implementing measures aimed at boosting, decreasing, or preserving fertility rates as a result of widespread demographic fears. Addressing a virtual press conference before the official release of the report, Dr. Natalia Kanem, Executive Director, UNFPA, said, “But efforts to influence fertility rates are very often ineffective and can erode women’s rights. Women’s bodies should not be held captive to population targets. To build thriving and inclusive societies, regardless of population size, we must radically rethink how we talk about and plan for population change.”
India is expected to show the highest population increase between now and 2050. However, just like the global population, India's human count will hit the peak by 2040s, and will then start declining in the second half of this century. The fall in India’s population density is projected to be much higher than what is projected for the entire world.
A public survey that was commissioned by UNFPA and carried out by YouGov as part of the report solicited opinions on population concerns from a representative sample of 7,797 people in eight nations: India, Brazil, Egypt, France, Hungary, Japan, Nigeria, and the United States. In case of India, the total sample size was 1,007 and the survey was carried out online.
Poonam Muttreja, Executive Director, Population Foundation of India said “What is significant is that India is in a unique position in which the young and working population is larger than the population which needs care (children and the elderly), unlike countries such as Japan with a declining population and an increasing elderly population. Such countries are, and will be, in dire need of skilled labour, and this is something that India can provide, capitalising on our demographic dividend.”
India is set to soon emerge as the world’s most populated country by surpassing China. Also, the country has one of the highest demographic dividend and it must utilize it to the fullest. There are some concerns like unemployment and lower economic growth which haunts India. In such a scenario where the government is unable to provide jobs and employment, the high demographic dividend can become a burden for India. But, the situation is not pessimistic as it seems because though IMF has cut down India’s GDP growth, India is going to be the fastest growing economy in the world with new opportunities.
