NCRB and NFHS data mismatch in child marriages point out a common cause: Underreporting

By: Anshul Vipat

The actual prevalence of child marriages is much higher as evident from the National Family Health Survey or NFHS-5 data

Last month, the National Crime Records Bureau (NRCB) released its yearly report on crimes in the country. One of the concerning statistic was a 9-fold increase in cases of child marriage since 2011. There was a 30-percent year-on-year increase in the number of underage marriage cases. In other words, while an average of 2 cases of child marriage were registered in 2020, this increased to about 3 cases a day in 2021. While the figures are alarming, it does not give a complete picture. Data from another government survey is even more worrying. The actual prevalence of child marriages is much higher as evident from the National Family Health Survey or NFHS-5 data.

The NCRB data

NCRB puts the figure of child marriages in the country as 4,500 since 2011. While in 2011, the number of cases registered under the Prohibition of Child Marriage Act was only 113, it increased to 326 in 2016 and then 523 in 2019. Then, the number of cases went up by almost 50% in 2020 and more than doubled in 2021. The number of cases registered in 2021 was 1050, up by 34% compared to 2020. Between 2011 & 2021, the number of cases registered increased by more than nine times.

Karnataka accounted for more than 20 percent of cases in the last decade. Which means atleast one in every five cases was reported from Karnataka. Tamil Nadu (649) and West Bengal (619) had the second and third highest number of cases registered followed by Assam with 596 cases. Together, these four states accounted for more than 59 percent of the cases reported between 2011 & 2021. The five south Indian states - Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Karnataka together accounted for 45 percent of the cases registered under the act since 2011.

Data mismatch

According to the fifth National Family Health Survey, 23.3 percent of women surveyed got married before attaining the legal age of 18 years, down from 26.8 percent reported in the previous survey. That is, at the national level, more than 1 in 5 women surveyed was married before 18. The situation is worse in rural areas where 27 percent of women got married before the legal age. The percentage of men who got married before 21 during the same period was 17 percent, down from 26.8 percent in 2016.

Among states, more than 40 percent of women in Bihar, Tripura, and West Bengal got married before the age of 18 years. In sharp contrast, NCRB data showed that these states have registered handful of cases under the child marriage act. The figure was less than 15 percent in the states of Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, Haryana, Chhattisgarh, and Tamil Nadu. These are the states that have reported a relatively higher number of cases registered under the PCM Act

Reasons for discrepancy

One major reason why NCRB and NFHS data are polar opposite is their methodology. NCRB considers only those cases for which FIR has been filed. So, states with better reporting are bound to report higher numbers compared to the others. On the other hand, NFHS collects its data from national level questionnaire survey. Nearly 6.37 lakh households, 7.24 lakh women and 1.02 lakh men across 707 districts, 28 states, and 8 union territories where covered in this survey that was carried out in 2019-21.

While there is a definite mismatch in the data, it does establishes a fact that child marriage is prevalent in the society despite creation of specific laws. Moreover, a huge number of underage age marriages is not reported. This is a worrying sign for a country that seeks to modernise its society and runs numerous campaigns on women empowerment.