India witnesses drastic fall in birth rates; rural-urban differential also narrows

By: Anshul Vipat

According to the latest statistics released by the Home Affairs Ministry's Sample Registration System, we have managed to achieve a drastic reduction in birth rates across the years. The birth rate at all India level has declined drastically over the last five decades from 36.9 in 1971 to 19.5 in 2020.

In July, the United Nations had released a report revealing that the population of India will overtake that of China by 2023, far earlier than initially estimated by demography exports. India Tracker did a 3-part series on the possible impact of excess population on our country. The first part talked about its repercussions on resources, in the next we analyzed its impact on the women labor force participation, while in the third we examined if India has a realistic chance of a demographic dividend. In this piece, India Tracker will look at the other side of the story.

While it is true that India's population has dramatically increased in the last six decades, it is also a fact that our population increase has drastically reduced. According to the latest statistics released by the Home Affairs Ministry's Sample Registration System, we have managed to achieve a drastic reduction in birth rates across the years. The birth rate at all India level has declined drastically over the last five decades from 36.9 in 1971 to 19.5 in 2020. The rural-urban differential has also narrowed over these years.

Birth Rate is a crude measure of fertility of a population and is a crucial determinant of population growth. It gives the number of live births per thousand population in a given region and year.

According to the data, birth rate has declined by about 11 percent in the last decade, from 21.8 in 2011 to 19.5 in 2020. The corresponding decline in rural areas is 23.3 to 21.1 (about 9 percent decline), and for urban areas it is from  17.6 to 16.1 (about 9 percent decline). However, the birth rate has continued to be higher in rural areas compared to urban areas in the last five decades.

Similarly, the death rate of the country has also declined substantially. The death rate of India has witnessed a significant decline over the last five decades from 14.9 in 1971 to 6.0 in 2020. The accompanying chart indicates that death rate at all India level has declined from 7.1 to 6.0 in the last ten years (2011-20) witnessing about 15 percent decadal decline. The corresponding decline in rural areas is 7.6 to 6.4 (about 16 percent decline), and for urban areas it is from 5.7 to 5.1. (about 11 percent decline).

Mortality is one of the basic components of population change and the related data is essential for demographic studies and public health administration. Death rate is one of the simplest measures of mortality and is defined as the number of deaths per thousand population in a given region and time period. Death rate also gives us an overall view of the health care system in the country.

If we go by the data, it seems government's efforts to tame population has started paying off. Abrupt increase in the population has had an negative impact on economy our overall development. While we may soon become the world's most populous country, we may not have a population explosion has predicted by several experts.